They Will All Be Wrong.

Was there a crisis? Looking at the current German recovery one can get the impression that there was hardly a better economic time. People speak about the second “Wirtschaftswunder”. What is most striking in all this, is how wrong all forecast institutes, professors, and experts have been. 95% of them were neither forecasting the crisis, nor the quick recovery in some countries. You were better off asking your dog!

Reconsider if you really need all these...  

• detailed forecasts that cause nothing else than intense discussions in leadership meetings without concrete actions,
• five-year plans that only prove unpredictability (nota bene, a strategy is not a plan), and
• hundreds of person days for creating a budget that becomes obsolete after a few months.

Instead of looking into the future, create it, and manage adaptively.

If you want to know what the future offers to you and your company then don’t ask the “experts” – who will be wrong anyway – but talk to someone who challenges your basic premises. All of us are surrounded by wrong paradigms and conventional wisdom that doesn’t become more true with more people repeating it.

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